China's economic growth is poised to decelerate further through 2028, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) highlighting persistent challenges such as dwindling productivity and an accelerating aging demographic. The forecast underscores deepening concerns for the world's second-largest economy, already grappling with a crippling debt crisis within its property sector and mounting geopolitical strains.
The IMF's Latest Forecast reveals an anticipated shrinkage in China's GDP growth to 3.5 percent by 2028, a significant downturn from the previously projected 4.6 percent for this year. This revision stems from "headwinds from weak productivity and population aging," coupled with "high uncertainty surrounding the outlook," as stated in the IMF's report released Friday.
Historical Context positions last year's growth figures among the slowest in decades for China, exacerbated by a property sector crisis and weakening global demand. Notably, Evergrande, a property behemoth, epitomizes the sector's distress with over $300 billion in debt, sparking fears of broader financial instability.
Sector-Specific Analysis draws attention to the real estate market's protracted crisis, previously a cornerstone of China's economic expansion. The IMF warns of the continued slowdown's potential to "further weigh on private demand and worsen confidence." A recent court order in Hong Kong initiating the liquidation of Evergrande's overseas assets adds to the sector's precariousness, although the company asserts this will not impact its operations within China.
Expert Commentary from Sonali Jain-Chandra, IMF’s Mission Chief for China, emphasizes the real estate sector's ongoing adjustment towards a "smaller and more sustainable size." Despite some progress, Jain-Chandra advises that "more needs to be done" to support the faltering sector.
Economic Indicators highlight China's 5.2 percent growth last year, surpassing modest expectations amidst declining exports—a first in seven years—owing to tensions with the West and a dip in global demand.
Looking Ahead, Chinese officials are anticipated to announce the 2024 growth target in March, as the nation contends with internal and external pressures shaping its economic trajectory.
Analysis underscores the critical juncture at which China's economy stands, navigating through structural challenges amid evolving global dynamics. The IMF's forecast paints a cautious picture, urging comprehensive measures to bolster the flagging sectors and mitigate long-term repercussions.
