The S&P 500 Index reached an unprecedented high on Friday, signaling a continuation of the rally into 2024. This development, occurring just before the release of upcoming earnings reports and inflation data, marks a significant milestone in the index's trajectory.
Despite concerns about slowing economic growth, the S&P 500's recent surge – over 1% on Friday, surpassing its previous closing and intraday records set in January 2022 – stands as a testament to market resilience. Closing the day at 4,839.81 points, the index reflects a potent mix of investor optimism and economic dynamics.
This rally's foundations are intriguingly diverse. Fairlead Strategies' Katie Stockton highlights that reaching all-time highs in major indices, including technology, communication services, consumer spending, financial, and industrial sectors, signifies a bullish momentum with no bear market characteristics. The clean break of resistance levels on charts further bolsters this view.
Other analysts share this optimistic outlook. Ari Wald from Oppenheimer, referencing historical precedents, notes that in 13 out of 14 instances where the S&P 500 reached previous all-time highs, the index was higher a year later. Wald predicts a roughly 12% increase by the end of 2024, with a particular preference for mid-sized growth stocks.
The week ahead holds critical moments with interest rate decisions from central banks in Turkey and Europe on Thursday and the Federal Reserve's primary inflation indicator – the personal consumption expenditures data – on Friday. Market reactions are likely to hinge on these developments, with investors eyeing signs of cooling prices that could prompt earlier interest rate cuts. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 46% probability of a quarter-point rate cut in March, a significant retreat from the 77% expectation a week earlier.
Reflecting on the S&P 500's journey, the index has made an impressive comeback from the major sell-off in 2022, breaking two-year highs in closing and intraday records. This resurgence is largely attributed to the robust profit increases of seven major technology companies – Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Tesla – fueled by artificial intelligence and cost-cutting efforts.
Moreover, the index benefits from the Federal Reserve's pivot from increasing interest rates to contemplating cuts after its most significant monetary tightening in recent years. Since its previous record in January 2022, 512 trading sessions have passed – the longest period of stagnation in over a decade, according to Bloomberg data.
After reaching its peak, the S&P 500 lost a quarter of its value, with its lowest close in 2022 at 3,577.03 points. Since then, it has rebounded from its worst year, adding over $10 trillion in market value. The technology sector, especially the seven major firms, led this recovery. In the first half of 2023, these companies displayed a divergence in performance not seen since the dot-com bubble.
As for individual contributors, Nvidia emerged as the highest percentage gainer in the S&P 500 since October 2022, spurred by significant sales predictions in artificial intelligence, while Microsoft contributed the most points to the index.
Conversely, First Republic Bank and SVB Financial Group were among the worst performers last year. First Republic nearly lost all its value before being acquired by JPMorgan Chase & Co., and SVB suffered nearly a 70% loss following the failure of its Silicon Valley Bank subsidiary. Most of these underperforming companies are no longer part of the S&P 500.
This comprehensive analysis of the S&P 500's journey underscores not only the resilience and dynamism of the stock market but also the critical role of technological innovation and monetary policy in shaping market trajectories. As investors and analysts look ahead, the interplay of these factors will continue to define the path of this pivotal index.
