In a recent announcement, the Bank of Canada (BoC) declared an augmentation in its benchmark overnight rate to 5.00% - a peak unseen since 2001. This move comes as part of a strategy to prevent inflation from stagnating above the 2% target, a potential consequence of substantial consumer spending.
Anticipated by financial experts and the markets alike, this increment marks the second instance within two months when borrowing costs have been escalated by 25 basis points. The first hike followed a five-month lull and was made on the grounds that monetary policies lacked adequate restrictiveness.
While the BoC no longer maintains that interest rates are insufficiently restrictive, it has readjusted its growth prognosis for the current year. Additionally, it anticipates that the reining in of inflation will be deferred by six months, potentially reaching its target by mid-2025.
Canadian monetary markets predict further interest rate escalation, with expectations for December at 5.14%, a noticeable increase from the pre-announcement figure of 5.08%. As a result of this rate hike, the Canadian dollar appreciated, with a 0.6% increase to 1.3157 against the U.S. dollar.
Despite the introduction of nine interest rate increments (equivalent to 450 basis points) since March of the previous year, economic vitality was restored in May. After a brief lull in April, the economy showed promising signs with a probable monthly growth of 0.4%.
The BoC's projections for the annualized quarterly growth for the second quarter have been revised upwards to 1.5% from April's 1.0%. The third quarter is also predicted to see a similar expansion. Furthermore, the estimated real GDP growth for 2023 has been readjusted to 1.8%, a moderate increase from April's projection of 1.4%.
The BoC anticipates that the equilibrium of supply and demand will be restored in early 2024, a claim made in its report accompanied by new forecasts.
May's headline inflation rate slowed to 3.4%, a significant decrease from the prior year's peak of 8.1%. However, the BoC's core measures for the three-month annualized rates have remained steady. Factors like unanticipatedly strong demand, inflated housing costs, and slower than projected declines in goods prices excluding food and energy are driving inflation.
The BoC projects a return to the 2% inflation rate by mid-2025, although the exact timeline remains uncertain due to the gradual trend of inflation towards the target.
The previous instance when the BoC's overnight target rate stood at 5.00% was in March and April of 2001.
A Reuters survey of 24 economists showed that 20 had forecasted the central bank's decision to raise rates by 25 basis points. Before the announcement, money markets had predicted over a 70% probability of a rate hike.
