Following President Tayyip Erdogan's victory in Sunday's presidential election, Turkey's lira plummeted to new record lows against the dollar on Monday. However, despite the lira's struggles, the stock market experienced a surge. Erdogan's re-election extends his rule into a third decade, solidifying his increasingly authoritarian regime.
The lira weakened further, reaching 20.077 against the dollar, surpassing the previous record low set just days ago. The currency has experienced a significant decline of over 7% since the beginning of the year and has lost more than 90% of its value over the past decade. Turkey's economy has been marred by volatile boom-and-bust cycles and rampant inflation.
In an attempt to manage the situation, Turkish authorities have become more involved in foreign exchange markets, resulting in abnormally small daily fluctuations. However, this intervention, coupled with dwindling foreign exchange and gold reserves, has raised concerns among market observers.
Analyst Roger Mark from Ninety One emphasized that Erdogan's primary challenge lies in Turkey's economy. He noted that the president's victory comes at a time when the country is facing precarious economic imbalances, with his unorthodox economic model becoming increasingly unsustainable.
Despite the lira's struggles, Turkish stocks experienced gains, with the benchmark BIST-100 index rising by nearly 5% and the banking index increasing by 4%. The dwindling presence of foreign asset managers in the Turkish stock market indicates that local investors are the primary drivers of these recent gains.
However, analysts caution that sustaining these gains will prove difficult amid broader economic challenges. Investment strategist Tunc Satiroglu predicted a short-lived rally following the conclusion of the election uncertainty, anticipating a resumption of the bear market in the days ahead.
Erdogan's strong performance in the first round of the election on May 14 triggered a sell-off in Turkey's international bonds and an increase in the cost to insure exposure to its debt through credit default swaps (CDS). These events dashed hopes for a shift in economic policy.
Turkey's international bonds remained steady on Monday, while CDS levels mirrored Friday's closing figures. Barclays highlighted that the country's external financing needs in the coming months are limited, thanks to an influx of summer tourism revenue and minimal payment obligations until November.
With many European and American markets closed for holidays, trading is expected to be thin on Monday. The repercussions of Erdogan's re-election and the challenges facing Turkey's economy will continue to unfold in the days and weeks ahead.
