A recent report from EPFR Global, a provider of fund flow and allocation data, highlights a growing trend among emerging market investors. The data reveals a significant move away from dollar-denominated debt towards local currency bonds. This shift is attributed to the stronger performance of local currencies, such as the Brazilian real and the Mexican peso, which have appreciated against the U.S. dollar.
EPFR Global's findings indicate that during the first four months of this year, investors withdrew $2.65 billion from dollar-denominated emerging market bonds, while allocating $5.23 billion to local currency-denominated debt within the same period.
Industry analysts anticipate that this trend will continue, driven by concerns over a potential U.S. debt default and the volatility of interest rates. Paul Greer, an emerging markets debt portfolio manager at Fidelity International, believes that local markets will outperform external debt, expecting this trend to persist throughout the year. Similarly, Thanos Papasavvas, chief investment officer at ABP Invest, emphasizes the attractiveness of emerging market local currency bonds based on fundamentals and valuations.
Several factors contribute to the shift away from dollar-denominated bonds. Firstly, the appreciation of local currencies against the U.S. dollar plays a significant role. Notably, the Mexican peso and the Brazilian real have both experienced double-digit appreciation against the greenback. Additionally, early actions by central banks in emerging economies to raise interest rates in response to inflation have improved the real yields offered by local currency bonds. Brazil, for instance, currently boasts an interest rate of 13.75% with a year-over-year inflation rate of 4.15% in May.
However, some analysts caution that market confidence remains low, leading investors to hoard cash while awaiting signals to reinvest in these instruments. The ongoing dynamics of emerging market debt and the evolving global economic landscape will continue to shape investors' strategies in the months ahead.
